THE TRUMP MOMENT – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  Look, there's no doubt about it.  This is Donald Trump's moment.  Whether he comes out as a winner, or a flash-in-the-pan, he's sucking the air out of the room.   He also appears to be gaining in popularity, although some pundits feel he's peaking, and will rise no further.  From the Sun-Sentinel: 

Donald Trump is surging in Florida, and has dethroned former Gov. Jeb Bush from his perch as the top candidate of Florida Republicans. For Democrats, the luster is coming off Hillary Clinton, who has lost a quarter of her support in the last nine weeks.

Those are the topline takeaways from new Quinnipiac Polls out Thursday.

On the Republican side, it isn't that Bush has slipped. He's at 17 percent among Florida Republicans, compared to 20 percent in the June 18 Quinnipiac Poll. That dip is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, meaning it's statistically unchanged.

Trump, a part-time Palm Beach resident, has attracted lots of support since the last poll, clearly benefiting from massive news media attention to his style and ideas. He stands at 21 percent among Republicans – up sharply from his 3 percent on June 18 – which puts him in a lead similar to what many polls have shown nationally and in early primary states.

Florida's other favorite son candidate, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, is down. He had support of 11 percent of Florida Republicans in the new poll, down from 18 percent in June.

Ben Carson, the pediatric neurosurgeon who retired to West Palm Beach, is enjoying a boomlet of his own. He's at 11 percent in the new survey, up from 7 percent in June.

And...

Clinton, long a favorite in Florida is way down among the state's Democrats. She was at 48 percent support in the new poll, down from 64 percent in June.

COMMENT:  I was watching Trump on TV last night.  In his rational moments, he's actually quite articulate and convincing.  The problem is his egotistical moments, which will eventually turn off many voters.  He tends to ramble, to be uninformed, and often to have only vague solutions.

As for Hillary, her fate probably lies in the hands of the FBI.  If her case heads for an indictment, she's gone.  But what if she's exonerated?  If the feds can't indict her, she can claim victory, even though those same feds might find that she's been grossly irresponsible in handling national secrets. 

Remember, in the end the press will be for her.  It has to be.  It is controlled by remnants of the 60s generation, which will want to see another "first."  First black president.  First woman president.  That the world is in flames and American influence collapsing is of no interest to that crowd.  Only "the first" is.

August 20, 2015